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Rusal

  486 HK

Non-Ferrous Metals
 /  Russia 
Improving business cannot find balance sheet support
Updates
Summary Key Data
Updated :
  12/08A
12/09A
12/10E
12/11E
12/12E
AlphaValue P/E (x) ns -13.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.00 0.00
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.75 25.6
AlphaValue EPS ($) 0.02 -0.08
Dividend (HKD) 0.00 0.00
Sales ($M) 15,685 8,165
EBITDA ($M) 3,749 775
Attributable net profit ($M) -5,952 821
ROE (after tax) (%) -81.6 15.2
ROCE (%) 7.99 6.15
Gearing (%) 241 212
Target
Price (HKD) 8.12
Target Price (HKD)
Market Cap (HKDM) 123,367
Perf. 1W: 6.14 %
Perf. 1M: -5.80 %
Perf. 3M: 10.5 %
Perf Ytd: -13.0 %
Rating
  • Strong momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall positive moving average trend confirmed by volumes
  • Relatively good momentum corresponding to a positively-oriented moving average, but offset by an overbought pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes
  • Relatively unfavorable momentum with a neutral or negative moving average trend, but offset by an oversold pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes
  • Strongly negative momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall negative moving average trend confirmed by volumes
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Businesses & Trends
Rusal is the largest producer of aluminium in the world (c.9% of all primary aluminium produced in 2009). Primary markets are in E... Read More
Money Making
The company is among the lowest cost producers of aluminium and alumina in the world, because of access to cheap and stranded... Read More
Valuation
Our NAV/SOTP values the aluminium and alumina segments using an EV/Sales multiple of 1.5x, which we observe is a mean valu... Read More
Analyst: Pranav Kumar
Concepts
Business concepts
  • Marginal capacity play
  • Complex legal structures
  • Family controls/influence
  • Asset based
Investment Concepts
  • Execution risk
  • One trick pony
  • One share, no vote
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