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Erste Group

  EBS AV

Regional Banks
 /  Austria 
Increasing loan default risks
Updates
09/08/2010EPS change
Change in EPS2010 : € 2.62 vs 1.92+35.9 %
2011 : € 3.42 vs 2.97+15.1 %

We reduced our expected loan loss provisions for 2010e and 2011e as the economic recovery in CEE countries has been better than expected so far. The level of new risk provisions should remain high but not as high as feared.
Increasing loan default risks
30/07/2010Earnings/sales releases
Pre-tax profit decreased by 7% to €36...
30/04/2010Latest
Net profit increased by 10% to €255m ...
11/03/2010Latest
As of 11/03/2010, our “2009E” figures ...
26/02/2010Earnings/sales releases
Net profit after minorities of Erste G...
Summary Key Data
Updated :
  12/08A
12/09A
12/10E
12/11E
12/12E
AlphaValue P/E (x) 10.7 7.77
Dividend yield (%) 2.18 3.22
P/Book (x) 1.07 0.66
AlphaValue EPS (€) 2.79 2.60
Dividend (€) 0.65 0.65
Core Tier 1 (%) 7.18 9.09
Revenues (€M) 6,283 7,186
Operat. profit (€M) 1,210 1,323
Attributable net profit (€M) 860 762
ROE reported (%) 10.4 8.01
Equity (gp. share) (€M) 8,079 10,948
Total assets (€M) 201,441 201,710
Next Div. Indic € 0.65 payment
Target
Price (€) 29.9
Target Price (€)
Market Cap (€M) 11,289
Perf. 1W: 2.75 %
Perf. 1M: 0.79 %
Perf. 3M: 14.9 %
Perf Ytd: 14.6 %
Rating
  • Strong momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall positive moving average trend confirmed by volumes
  • Relatively good momentum corresponding to a positively-oriented moving average, but offset by an overbought pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes
  • Relatively unfavorable momentum with a neutral or negative moving average trend, but offset by an oversold pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes
  • Strongly negative momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall negative moving average trend confirmed by volumes
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Businesses & Trends
Erste Group was founded in 1819 as the first Austrian savings bank (“Erste oesterreichische Spar-Casse”). It is the central bank of... Read More
Money Making
Erste Group bought into the EU banks with a leading market position or the potential to reach it since its IPO in 1997. Erste Group ... Read More
Valuation
Erste Group changed its divisional reporting in 2008 from geographical to a more normal client and product segmentation. The ban... Read More
Analyst: Dieter Hein
Concepts
Business concepts
  • Rate curve arbitrage
  • Regulation & tax drivers
Investment Concepts
  • Acquisition based growth
  • Margin expansion
  • Regulation shock
Story Trigger
  • Changes in interest rate...
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