Aker BP

Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 02/05/25, 09:00 CET.

Company Update:
We initiate coverage on Aker BP with an ‘Add’ rating and a target price of NOK245, implying a 10% upside. Aker BP offers investors rare access to basin-scale, tax-advantaged upstream volumes in a de-risked regulatory environment. While 2025–2026 earnings are pressured by heavy capital outlays, the strategic capture of Norway’s fiscal incentives sets the stage for material free cash flow growth post-2027. We view the current valuation as discounting near-term capex headwinds, but underappreciating medium-term cash inflection and dividend resilience. Indeed, the company’s 5% annual dividend growth is structurally backed by tax timing and operational stability, avoiding the variability seen in peers.

Expert Opinion: 
Our expert believes Aker BP is an interesting story in the sector with a pure, tightly controlled upstream exposure to the Norwegian basin: One of the few remaining high-return basins globally. While the near-term capital intensity is acknowledged, the medium-term cash flow story is underpriced. Dividend visibility, tax-optimized balance sheet management, and strategic simplicity argue for gradual re-rating as production ramps up. If you want to know more about the company, please book a call with our analyst. 


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