Research

519 European Large Caps

35 Senior Analysts

ANALYST REPORTS
STRATEGY REVIEWS

03/10/26

Amplifon

In addition to our upward revision of estimates (as discussed in the EPS section), the strong momentum in the hearing aids sector, the rebound in ...

02/10/26

Société Générale

We have downgraded our TP on SG following an update of our risk perception on French banks as a result of the deterioration in France sovereign ...

02/10/26

Porsche SE

Following Volkswagen’s profit warning, driven by a €6bn non-cash goodwill impairment on its Porsche segment, a challenging market environment and ...

02/10/26

Crédit Agricole

We have downgraded our TP on CASA following an update of our risk perception on French banks following the deterioration in French sovereign credit ...

02/10/26

BNP Paribas

We have updated our view on BNP, revising our estimates after Q2 publication, downgrading our forecasts over 2027-2028, accounting for deteriorating ...

02/10/26

Neste

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have cut diesel supply. Europe, short of ...

02/10/26

ELISA GOES THE DATA WAY

Elisa, traditionally viewed as a sector proxy has lost some of its lustre over the past two years. From 2010 to 2023, Elisa’s stock increased by over ...

02/10/26

HIGH TIME TO SELL FRENCH STATE HOLDINGS

The following lines, written in October 2024, need not be changed, sadly. Only the figures needed a dust-off. The urgency felt 2 years ago about ...

02/10/26

KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA

Lower earnings expectations but a positive CMD impression

02/10/26

J D Wetherspoon

JDW’s FY26 results were mixed. LFL sales rose by 4.2%, but the adjusted operating profit fell by 17.9% to £120.2m (~1% below consensus), while the ...

02/10/26

Melia Hotels International

The market prices Meliá at a discount to the value of its assets, penalised by a comparison with asset-light peers on multiples that are simply not ...

01/10/26

IT Services

After two years of stagnation and a first half of 2026 that many saw as the death knell for IT services, Accenture has just reminded the market that ...

01/10/26

Car Manufacturers

European passenger car registrations increased, driven by the growth of electrified powertrains, particularly BEVs, with significant contributions ...

01/10/26

Landsec

Landsec’s strategy remains unchanged: to grow in the retail pocket. This time, the company is opting for a cash-based financing approach through a ...

01/10/26

FERRARI: THE LUXURY OF SCARCITY (ADD, 27% UPSIDE)

Since our last teaser on Ferrari (ADD; Italy) in June 2024, the group reached an all-time high of €480 in 2025, before declining 45% as the market ...

01/10/26

Gaming - Gambling

The sector sell-off reflects a reset in earnings quality rather than a collapse in demand. Growth remains healthy, but higher taxes, rising CAC, ...

01/10/26

Atos Group

Following a constructive pre-close call, we are revising our earnings trajectory for the group. While we are adopting a more cautious stance on the ...

01/10/26

Colruyt

Colruyt has issued a profit warning, guiding FY26/27 operating profit to a ‘limited decrease’ vs €465m, a clear step down from June. The combined ...

01/10/26

EVN

EVN’s CMD offered little new, broadly confirming the targets flagged at the FY24/25 results, with 2030 EBITDA of €1.2bn at the top end of guidance, ...

30/09/26

Seb

Following a pre-close call with Seb’s IR, we have revised down our 2026E EPS forecast as we had underestimated the tax charge. A large portion of the ...

30/09/26

H Lundbeck

Lundbeck, as per Bloomberg, is pursuing endocrine- and neurology-focused Xeris Biopharma, whose market cap is c.28% of that of Lundbeck. Considering ...

30/09/26

CTS Eventim

CTS Eventim abruptly announced the departure of its CFO with immediate effect, which suggests a significant disagreement with the CEO-founder in our ...

30/09/26

UNILEVER : TRADING FOOD FOR GROWTH (ADD; +23% UPSIDE)

Our previous teaser on Unilever highlighted the first signs of improvement, with volumes finally moving back ahead of price in FY24. After a c.20% ...

30/09/26

SECTOR YIELD COMMENTS

Should one chase the 5.7% yield that Real Estate dangles? Or forget yield altogether, buy Semiconductors and pray? Below is the pecking order of ...

30/09/26

Jenoptik

As we expect higher overall profitability, we have slightly increased our EV/EBITDA multiples used for valuing specific divisions. Biophotonics, ...

30/09/26

Warehouses De Pauw

As WDP pursues a major tie-up with the French company ARGAN (€1.8bn market cap), it is raising €400m in equity to strengthen its balance sheet and ...

30/09/26

Ferrari

We have lowered the asset beta applied to Ferrari from 1.4x (our previous analyst beta, already below the 1.6x AlphaValue automotive sector beta) to ...

29/09/26

Gaming - Gambling

Brazil has suspended fixed-odds betting, including online sports betting and casino games, with platforms required to shut from 6 October. Congress ...

29/09/26

CD Projekt

Our EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 go up due to the following reasons: 1. On September 29, CDR released The Witcher III Remastered, which is free of ...

29/09/26

VALLOUREC, FROM CASH BURNER TO CASH COW (ADD; +12%)

Since we last teased on Vallourec, the French specialist in OCTG, the share has not actually moved much (“Vallourec needs to take a breath”, June ...

28/09/26

TotalEnergies

This CMD extends TotalEnergies’ horizon without speeding up its growth. The 2030 targets are confirmed as they stood, and the post-2030 outlook ...

28/09/26

adidas

Adidas’ Investor Day on 24 September brought no new financial targets. However, it did offer a more convincing view of what lies behind the recovery ...

28/09/26

VONOVIA’S EDLP MOMENT (BUY; 74% UPSIDE)

Vonovia sits on €86bn of residential property, overwhelmingly German, with a €7bn Swedish exposure. Rents still bring in 85% of EBITDA, but the 2028 ...

28/09/26

Rexel

Rexel’s acquisition of GCG adds >$1.1bn of revenue at a c.11% EBITA margin, with >60% of sales exposed to structural-growth markets. We estimate GCG ...

28/09/26

Smith & Nephew

Along with the downgrades to our DCF and NAV, we now apply a 10% discount to our peer-based valuation metrics. This reflects S&N’s growth lagging ...

28/09/26

Erste Group

Erste wants to cross the symbolic 50% threshold in its Polish subsidiary, EBP. This is in line with its 2030 plan, which mentions inorganic growth ...

28/09/26

BASF SE

BASF is looking to consolidate its lead in chemicals by acquiring Evonik. The appeal lies in portfolio adjacency, principally in Materials and ...

26/09/26

Danieli & Co

FY25/26 results aligned with expectations at the EBITDA level, though EBIT was impacted by increased depreciation and receivable write-downs (€218m ...

25/09/26

Alten

While Alten had already hinted at improving trends in July, today’s results provide clear confirmation. The Group has returned to growth, supported ...

25/09/26

Crédit Agricole

We have downgraded our EPS projections over 2026-2028, accounting for a deteriorating global macro and ramping French macro risks in 2027-2028. The ...

25/09/26

HelloFresh

We have revised our FY26 and FY27 expectations following the profit warning and the downward revision to guidance. We now assume a weaker operating ...

25/09/26

ADYEN: ANOTHER YEAR OF DERATING, THESIS UNBROKEN (BUY; 82% UPSIDE)

Adyen has gone nowhere against the market for two years (-45% vs the Stoxx 600 NR over the period), and the debate has never left volume processed ...

25/09/26

HelloFresh

HelloFresh issued a profit warning after its key back-to-school acquisition window failed to deliver, lowering its FY26 revenue and AEBITDA guidance ...

25/09/26

Millicom

Following a strong H1, marked by the integration of TEF’s operations in Colombia, Ecuador, and Uruguay, and anticipating solid organic growth through ...

24/09/26

Rusal

Overall, Rusal is an interesting bet to play the odds of Russian metals returning to the West, more so due to its ‘relatively’ liquid listing in Hong ...

24/09/26

Anheuser-Busch Inbev

AB InBev’s Capital Markets Day was more of an evolution than a strategy reset, with the launch of the new “Re-Ignite” phase. The focus is on building ...

24/09/26

Banca Monte Dei Paschi Siena , Intesa Sanpaolo

The MPS CEO’s presentation at the BofA conference helped clarify the project. It is not a defensive project. Execution risk appears limited. The ...

24/09/26

Mitchells & Butlers

M&B’s Q4 FY26 LFL sales growth of +1.4% missed expectations, with weaker underlying momentum despite an easier comparator. However, continued ...

24/09/26

UCB EPHEMERALLY AFFORDABLE (ADD; 20% UPSIDE)

A years/decades long search for revolutionary multi-blockbuster drug(s), a phenomenal run for some years and then concerns sprout around ...

24/09/26

FOMO MONEY AGAIN? THINK ENERGY

We expected higher rates to cool down animal instincts. They are back. Over the last 5 trading days to 22-09, European Semiconductors gained 16% with ...

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RESEARCH

519 European Large Caps

35 Senior Analysts