Research

520 European Large Caps

34 Senior Analysts

ANALYST REPORTS
STRATEGY REVIEWS

28/09/26

BASF SE

BASF is looking to consolidate its lead in chemicals by acquiring Evonik. The appeal lies in portfolio adjacency, principally in Materials and ...

26/09/26

Danieli & Co

FY25/26 results aligned with expectations at the EBITDA level, though EBIT was impacted by increased depreciation and receivable write-downs (€218m ...

25/09/26

Alten

While Alten had already hinted at improving trends in July, today’s results provide clear confirmation. The Group has returned to growth, supported ...

25/09/26

Crédit Agricole

We have downgraded our EPS projections over 2026-2028, accounting for a deteriorating global macro and ramping French macro risks in 2027-2028. The ...

25/09/26

HelloFresh

We have revised our FY26 and FY27 expectations following the profit warning and the downward revision to guidance. We now assume a weaker operating ...

25/09/26

ADYEN: ANOTHER YEAR OF DERATING, THESIS UNBROKEN (BUY; 82% UPSIDE)

Adyen has gone nowhere against the market for two years (-45% vs the Stoxx 600 NR over the period), and the debate has never left volume processed ...

25/09/26

HelloFresh

HelloFresh issued a profit warning after its key back-to-school acquisition window failed to deliver, lowering its FY26 revenue and AEBITDA guidance ...

25/09/26

Millicom

Following a strong H1, marked by the integration of TEF’s operations in Colombia, Ecuador, and Uruguay, and anticipating solid organic growth through ...

24/09/26

Rusal

Overall, Rusal is an interesting bet to play the odds of Russian metals returning to the West, more so due to its ‘relatively’ liquid listing in Hong ...

24/09/26

Anheuser-Busch Inbev

AB InBev’s Capital Markets Day was more of an evolution than a strategy reset, with the launch of the new “Re-Ignite” phase. The focus is on building ...

24/09/26

Banca Monte Dei Paschi Siena , Intesa Sanpaolo

The MPS CEO’s presentation at the BofA conference helped clarify the project. It is not a defensive project. Execution risk appears limited. The ...

24/09/26

Mitchells & Butlers

M&B’s Q4 FY26 LFL sales growth of +1.4% missed expectations, with weaker underlying momentum despite an easier comparator. However, continued ...

24/09/26

UCB EPHEMERALLY AFFORDABLE (ADD; 20% UPSIDE)

A years/decades long search for revolutionary multi-blockbuster drug(s), a phenomenal run for some years and then concerns sprout around ...

24/09/26

FOMO MONEY AGAIN? THINK ENERGY

We expected higher rates to cool down animal instincts. They are back. Over the last 5 trading days to 22-09, European Semiconductors gained 16% with ...

24/09/26

Quadient

H1’26 results were a mixed bag, with sales slightly ahead of company-compiled consensus, but weaker Digital and Mail margins led to lower FY26 ...

24/09/26

Schneider Electric

Schneider Electric’s voluntary tender offer for Shelly Group confirms the rumours that surfaced a couple of months ago. The group will own 57% of the ...

24/09/26

Shelly Group SE

Shelly has officialised the agreement for a takeover offer from Schneider Electric at €70 per share, a slightly disappointing amount compared to our ...

24/09/26

Bechtle

The past few days have been rich in insights. First, Bechtle held its Capital Markets Day on September 17, which essentially served as a reminder of ...

23/09/26

Diageo

Diageo’s CFO change adds some execution risk given the timing, just over a month after the new three-year plan. However, the plan remains unchanged, ...

23/09/26

J D Wetherspoon

We have cut FY25/26E and FY26/27E EPS by ~13% and ~8% respectively, following JDW’s Q4 pre-close trading update (12 weeks to 19 July 2026), which ...

23/09/26

QUICK & DIRTY ABOUT HOLDCOS

When markets faced higher rates at the beginning of 2022 to bring the inflation genie back into its lamp, the 20 Holding companies tracked by ...

23/09/26

JMAT NEEDS ITS MANAGEMENT TO DELIVER (REDUCE, -10% DOWNSIDE)

Johnson Matthey (UK, Reduce) has spent the past few years doing what many industrial conglomerates eventually do: shedding parts of itself until only ...

23/09/26

Société Générale

Following the CMD, we have updated our projections to reflect both the new inputs provided by the management as well as the slightly downgraded macro ...

23/09/26

Helvetia Baloise Holding

Helvetia Baloise has released a strong set of 1H26 results. While the top line remained weak, underlying earnings came in ahead of expectations. At ...

23/09/26

KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA

Weak FY25/26 results (below expectations) – Solid outlook on FY26/27E

23/09/26

Metals & Mining

With the US trying to work out a potash deal with Belarus, we revive our expectation of Russian metals once again finding acceptance in the West. ...

22/09/26

Vusion

The key takeaway from the H1 earnings is not the figures themselves (even if our scenario of strong deterioration of FCF was more than confirmed at ...

22/09/26

Kingfisher

Kingfisher’s H1 FY26/27 performance was a beat across the P&L and cash flow, prompting management’s second guidance upgrade of the year. The share ...

22/09/26

EUROPE NEEDS THALES AS ITS SOVEREIGN BRAIN (ADD; 19%)

Defence platforms win headlines. Thales (ADD; France) supplies much of what makes them effective: sensors that detect threats, communications that ...

22/09/26

HOTELS & LEISURE FACE TIGHTER POCKETS

Investors in the notoriously motley ‘Hotel, Catering & Leisure’ sector need a strong heart, robust convictions and above all, much time. The sector ...

22/09/26

Ryanair

We have incorporated the Q1 27 figures into our estimates, while taking into account Ryanair’s recent capacity reduction ahead of winter. While this ...

22/09/26

Partners Group

We have bitten the bullet after the H1-2026 release, and allow for more caution in our AuM and earning forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with cascading ...

22/09/26

D’Ieteren Group

We have removed Investor from the peers list as its elevated ratios were unwarrantedly boosting the valuation of D’Ieteren on peer-based valuation ...

21/09/26

Société Générale

SocGen’s 2026 CMD “enhances” its turnaround: 3% revenue CAGR, absolute cost cut (€16.3bn cost target in 2029), C/I ratio below 55%, and 13-14% ROTE ...

21/09/26

Novo Nordisk

Novo’s CMD announcements, including the diversification plan and a vague mid-term sales target, disappointed investors. Against the backdrop of ...

21/09/26

Shell

We raise our reference EPS to USD 5.76 in 2026, USD 5.57 in 2027 and USD 4.70 in 2028. Our price assumptions explain part of the increase. We raise ...

21/09/26

Fugro

We have rebased our forecasts on H1 2026 as reported, and on the withdrawal of the full-year margin guidance. H1 net profit came in at -EUR 62.1M, ...

21/09/26

SIEGFRIED’S FALLING KNIFE WORTH THE CATCH (BUY, 37% UPSIDE)

Siegfried’s (Buy, Switzerland) post-Covid success story has been nipped in the bud by three years of low-single-digit (LSD) growth (in CHF). ...

21/09/26

Volkswagen

Following Volkswagen’s profit warning, we have cut our estimates for FY26 to reflect China weakness and the special charges announced. Special ...

18/09/26

Allegro.eu

Our EPS estimates for 2026-27 slightly increase following an increase of our EBITDA forecast for 2026, in-line with Allegro’s updated guidance, as ...

18/09/26

STMICRO’S AI EXPOSURE AND LEGACY RECOVERY AS CHERRY ON TOP

STMicroelectronics (BUY, Netherlands) equity story has transformed from one of Automotive semiconductors and Industrial Microcontrollers to one of a ...

18/09/26

OH CANADA, WELCOME TO EUROPE?

Canada’s possible elevation to the EU’s first “Associate Member” opens a fresh chapter in transatlantic economics — this time between consenting ...

18/09/26

Aker BP

We raise our 2026 reference EPS to USD 4.46 from USD 3.29, and our 2027 estimate to USD 3.77 from USD 3.10. The main driver is the price deck: we ...

18/09/26

Nornickel

2026 is proving to be a long-awaited inflection point for Nornickel, and a validation of AlphaValue’s long held thesis on the Russian mining giant’s ...

18/09/26

Bolloré

Our NAV is beneffiting from the announced €2bn dividends to be received in the coming days, triggered by the €2.5bn dividend announced by the ...

18/09/26

Thales

Thales combines one of Europe’s strongest defence-electronics franchises with several new growth levers. HexaForce and ZODIAC reinforce its position ...

17/09/26

Wendel

We have revised down our earnings forecasts following H1 2026, mainly reflecting lower EBITDA assumptions across the forecast period. Our previous ...

17/09/26

Bilfinger

Just five weeks after reaffirming its outlook, Bilfinger cut FY26 adjusted EBITA guidance by 22%, reported EBITA by approximately 45% and free cash ...

17/09/26

Wizz Air Holding

The Investor Day does not try to sell a new narrative; it is simply trading a growth story for a normalisation one. The war, the grounding, and the ...

17/09/26

Bolloré

Thanks to the account @LuchesiPhilippe flagging the documents on X, we might have found the main reason behind the exceptional €4.2bn dividend ...

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RESEARCH

520 European Large Caps

34 Senior Analysts