AstraZeneca
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 13/10/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
After Pfizer, AstraZeneca also agreed (over the weekend) to sell its medicines directly to patients on the TrumpRx platform, at up to 80% discount to the list price. In return, Astra will get a three-year exemption from the tariffs on US imports, though the firm has already announced $50bn of investment in the US manufacturing and R&D over the next five years. As we had expressed when Pfizer had inked such an agreement, the winners in this situation are patients, the US government (as they fulfill promises to their voters), and AstraZeneca (as the firm already provides significant discounts on the list price, so there shouldn’t be a major deviation in what the firm gets for its medicines). The losing parties are the middlemen Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).
Astra has been one of the best performing European Big Pharmas this year in terms of share price (+25% ytd), which does not leave any material upside potential at current levels. However, we are likely to revise our estimates higher, as the firm continues to witness strong momentum for its key offerings, especially high-margin cancer medicines.
Expert Opinion:
AstraZeneca has one of the strongest pipelines in the industry as well as a strong balance sheet and is exceptionally well managed by possibly the best CEO in the industry. Furthermore, that announcement is good news and secures the positioning of AstraZeneca in the US. Yet, we see little upside on fundamentals as the stock trades on a PE 2025 of 22.3 and a PE26 of 20x, ie with a substantial premium to the sector. While this premium is fully deserved (at least in our expert's opinion) he doesn't think there is a lot of upside going further. There are probably better options out there. He still believes Novo Nordisk is notably trading at a significantly more palatable PE ratio of 13.6x for 2026 (with a restructuring plan down the road) and the recent article from the FT on the possible good surprise on Alzheimer (https://www.ft.com/content/87a8d95b-4c86-42f7-831e-8da7b8c2c9f6) very much highlights the potential of the Danish pharma giant .
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
After Pfizer, AstraZeneca also agreed (over the weekend) to sell its medicines directly to patients on the TrumpRx platform, at up to 80% discount to the list price. In return, Astra will get a three-year exemption from the tariffs on US imports, though the firm has already announced $50bn of investment in the US manufacturing and R&D over the next five years. As we had expressed when Pfizer had inked such an agreement, the winners in this situation are patients, the US government (as they fulfill promises to their voters), and AstraZeneca (as the firm already provides significant discounts on the list price, so there shouldn’t be a major deviation in what the firm gets for its medicines). The losing parties are the middlemen Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).
Astra has been one of the best performing European Big Pharmas this year in terms of share price (+25% ytd), which does not leave any material upside potential at current levels. However, we are likely to revise our estimates higher, as the firm continues to witness strong momentum for its key offerings, especially high-margin cancer medicines.
Expert Opinion:
AstraZeneca has one of the strongest pipelines in the industry as well as a strong balance sheet and is exceptionally well managed by possibly the best CEO in the industry. Furthermore, that announcement is good news and secures the positioning of AstraZeneca in the US. Yet, we see little upside on fundamentals as the stock trades on a PE 2025 of 22.3 and a PE26 of 20x, ie with a substantial premium to the sector. While this premium is fully deserved (at least in our expert's opinion) he doesn't think there is a lot of upside going further. There are probably better options out there. He still believes Novo Nordisk is notably trading at a significantly more palatable PE ratio of 13.6x for 2026 (with a restructuring plan down the road) and the recent article from the FT on the possible good surprise on Alzheimer (https://www.ft.com/content/87a8d95b-4c86-42f7-831e-8da7b8c2c9f6) very much highlights the potential of the Danish pharma giant .
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Change in Payout ratio is positive but could mark the peak in momentum.