AstraZeneca
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 09/06/26, 09:00 CET
Second, we expect that Wegovy Oral will have the same success outside of the US: launch in UK and Europe is due this summer before extension in other territories. The potential for market share gain is likely underestimated.
Lastly, while competition in the weight-loss market will increase with newcomers, unless these products are MASSIVELY superior in terms of weight loss or tolerability (which no product has demonstrated so far), the benefits of early comers in terms of marketing are massive. Simply put, for the public, Wegovy and Zepbound are synonyms of weight loss. If the number of similar products increases, that marketing benefit will become increasingly important.
Company Update:
AstraZeneca has unveiled phase II results of its GLP-1 obesity pill candidate, elecoglipron, which helped patients lose 11.8% of their body weight in 36 weeks. Even though the firm will proceed this candidate to phase III trials, the weight loss potential seems lower than the existing oral obesity drugs, i.e., oral Wegovy (from Novo Nordisk) and Foundayo (Eli Lilly). That said, one may see a better potential in longer phase III trials for elecoglipron.
AstraZeneca has unveiled phase II results of its GLP-1 obesity pill candidate, elecoglipron, which helped patients lose 11.8% of their body weight in 36 weeks. Even though the firm will proceed this candidate to phase III trials, the weight loss potential seems lower than the existing oral obesity drugs, i.e., oral Wegovy (from Novo Nordisk) and Foundayo (Eli Lilly). That said, one may see a better potential in longer phase III trials for elecoglipron.
Overall, at the current efficacy levels, this asset may not be a massive game-changer for Astra, but it could still become a multi-blockbuster product for the firm.
Note that yesterday, Zealand Pharma dropped c26% after its obesity drug survodutide showed 19% of patients stopped taking the drug due to gastrointestinal side effects, even as the trial demonstrated strong weight and liver fat reductions.
Expert Opinion:
We can't help but stress again that the drop in Novo Nordisk (BUY 61% upside) share price is way exaggerated.
We can't help but stress again that the drop in Novo Nordisk (BUY 61% upside) share price is way exaggerated.
First and most importantly, Novo's oral pill is a massive success (3m subscriptions in the US in 5 months). Novo Nordisk confirmed that more than 80% of new Wegovy oral prescriptions go to patients new to GLP-1 therapy who wouldn't inject.
It is massively gaining market share in the US vs Eli Lilly, notably thanks to a superior tolerability. As the market moves towards weight loss for people who are overweight rather than morbidly obese, tolerability becomes more important than a 2% to 3% weight-loss advantage.
It is massively gaining market share in the US vs Eli Lilly, notably thanks to a superior tolerability. As the market moves towards weight loss for people who are overweight rather than morbidly obese, tolerability becomes more important than a 2% to 3% weight-loss advantage.
Second, we expect that Wegovy Oral will have the same success outside of the US: launch in UK and Europe is due this summer before extension in other territories. The potential for market share gain is likely underestimated.
Lastly, while competition in the weight-loss market will increase with newcomers, unless these products are MASSIVELY superior in terms of weight loss or tolerability (which no product has demonstrated so far), the benefits of early comers in terms of marketing are massive. Simply put, for the public, Wegovy and Zepbound are synonyms of weight loss. If the number of similar products increases, that marketing benefit will become increasingly important.
NOVO is still the most attractive stock in our pharma universe at this stage. Stock trades on a PE below 12x for the current year with a dividend yield of 4.5%. As a reminder, Eli Lilly trades on a PE26 of c34x and a yield of 0.6% while they have roughly the same sales (USD37bn for Eli Lilly and USD35bn for Novo Nordisk), even though Eli Lilly is growing faster (which may change with the Oral versions).
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