Boliden

After flying high on the back of precious metals’ rally – which also moderated in recent weeks – Boliden’s shares crashed by approximately 20% yesterday. This sell-off was due to a profit and output warning flagged at Garpenberg because of seismic activity. While this should weigh on near-term earnings/cash flows, we view this development as a compelling entry opportunity. 

Garpenberg is a key asset for Boliden with 2025 zinc and silver production at 102kt (29% of group level mined output) and 255,534kg (58%), respectively. But according to Varun, the recent seismic activity is mining-related and doesn't really jeopardise the exploitation of the asset over the long run. Boliden has most of its production and sales in Europe, which makes it an attractive play in the mining sector. 

Expert Opinion:
Varun is VERY knowledgeable in the mining sector.  He is probably right over the long run, and following the massive drop in share price yesterday, we could see a technical bounce. But, we are a bit cautious over the sector. We are of the view that the Iran war will have long-lasting repercussions on the worldwide growth, which will in turn translate into a lower demand for commodities. We would rather wait on the sideline.
   

As Varun highlights in another post, the metals and Mining sector momentum is gradually changing. 

While until late-February 2026, the Metals & Mining sector’s momentum was extremely strong across most names (also irrespective of underlying business quality), a step change is underway. As of yesterday, the AV momentum dynamic turned unfavourable for Anglo American, Antofagasta and Boliden - interestingly, names that were on fire and considered must-haves in hot commodity markets. While the likes of Glencore, BHP, Norsk Hydro and Rio Tinto maintain strong/favourable momentum.