CASA

Company Update:
CASA notified the Italian authority and Banco BPM that it has crossed the 25% ownership threshold and now owns 29% of the bank’s shares.

The move is again motivated by CASA aiming to lock in its strategic interest within Banco BPM with which the bank has several long-standing strategic partnerships and JVs in non-life insurance and consumer finance. CASA’s management has made it clear that it wants to merge its Italian activities together with Banco BPM and we see the move as an additional push towards that direction. After the last AGM, part of Banco BPM’s board is now aligned with CASA and we see good odds of a combination occurring in a not too distant future.

We do not think CASA will continue to increase its stake in Banco BPM further, as crossing the 30% threshold would result in a mandatory takeover bid under Italian law.

Expert Opinion:
In our opinion, this is quite interesting, notably regarding BMPS and Intesa. Indeed, Banco BPM had invited BMPS to enter into merger talks. However, this could be seen as risky for BMPS as there were concerns that Banco BPM could be a potential takeover target, notably from UniCredit.  With Credit Agricole at 29.3%, the likelihood of a hostile bid for Banco BPM is significantly reduced, and a merger could be more enticing to BPM board members. Indeed, if BMPS were to choose Banco BPM, the combined entity would have the implicit support and distribution partnership muscle (in insurance and consumer finance) of one of Europe’s largest banking groups. 

The Italian banking landscape is fun to watch but hard to navigate. 


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