DHL
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 19/10/26, 09:00 CET
DHL has announced an increase to its full-year guidance through preliminary results released on Friday evening.
The group now expects 2026 EBIT to be above €7.0bn vs. €6.5bn respectively. The driver of this upgrade are once again the DHL divisions, notably Express, which again benefitted from €100m of extra EBIT from the current capacity constraints in the air freight market.
Group EBIT for Q3 is about €1.7bn, 4% ahead of the company-compiled consensus.
The group also raised its FCF guidance to more than €3.2bn (c. €3.0bn previously) and group capex to €3.6bn (€3.0-3.3bn previously).
The release also mentions that the group will revisit its mid-term EBIT guidance of €7.0bn in March when it publishes its full year results. The current consensus for 2026 is already at €7.0bn but under the current conditions, we believe that this could still be revised upwards by LSD range.
Our estimates sit below the current consensus and we will raise them accordingly.
Expert Opinion:
Momentum remains positive, and we will increase our estimates. However, we doubt it will be sufficient to justify a positive rating. Part of the excellent momentum and pricing situation is already priced in and we reiterate our cautious stance.
Momentum remains positive, and we will increase our estimates. However, we doubt it will be sufficient to justify a positive rating. Part of the excellent momentum and pricing situation is already priced in and we reiterate our cautious stance.
The read-across is positive for UPS but less so for other European logistics groups, as most of the beat came from DHL Express.
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