ENI
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 28/05/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
ENI's valuation remains attractive with dividend yield at 8%. Momentum is tougher due to current oil price. Despite our expert's skepticism on the economics of carbon capture, a partial disposal of that business would stamp a price on these assets which would be good news. Eni isn't his favorite pick in the sector over the long run; it is the least impacted by a potential downside on oil price. With OPEC + decision coming in on Saturday with a 411k potential output increase widely expected, ENI could outperform its peers over the short term.
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Company Update:
Eni is in exclusive talks to sell a 49.99% stake in its carbon capture subsidiary, Eni CCUS Holding, to BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). The business includes four core projects: HyNet and Bacton in the UK (10 Mtpa each), L10 in the Netherlands (5 Mtpa), and Ravenna in Italy (4 Mtpa, JV with Snam), for a total targeted CO₂ storage capacity of 29 Mtpa by 2030.
We value Eni CCUS Holding at $2.5–3.8bn, based on a capacity-weighted multiple of $100–150 per ton of annual CO₂ capacity, in line with benchmarks from Northern Lights, Porthos, and government-backed cluster initiatives in the UK. The raw valuation range from this methodology is $2.9–4.35bn (29 Mtpa × $100–150), but we apply a 14% discount for development risk, permitting uncertainty, lack of contracted offtake, and JV structuring at Ravenna. This implies potential proceeds of $1.25–1.9bn from a 49.99% stake sale.
Eni’s net debt stood at €16.9bn at end-2024, and its 2025 capex guidance is €8.6bn, this transaction would materially strengthen funding flexibility support balance sheet resilience through the current low oil price environment in our view.
ENI's valuation remains attractive with dividend yield at 8%. Momentum is tougher due to current oil price. Despite our expert's skepticism on the economics of carbon capture, a partial disposal of that business would stamp a price on these assets which would be good news. Eni isn't his favorite pick in the sector over the long run; it is the least impacted by a potential downside on oil price. With OPEC + decision coming in on Saturday with a 411k potential output increase widely expected, ENI could outperform its peers over the short term.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Strong beat in Q1 operationally partially offset by weaker net investment income.
