Nexi

Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) announced it will increase its stake in Nexi to 29.9% vs 19.14% currently.  Under Italian law, crossing the 30% threshold would trigger a mandatory public takeover bid.

This is an aggressive, pre-emptive defense. CDP is not just "fending off" a potential bid by CVC; they are effectively telling the market that Nexi's core infrastructure is off-limits to corporate raiders.

For CVC, without the ability to execute a clean take-private or carve out the banking division, the industrial logic of their bid collapses.

While this means that the speculative appeal of Nexi is decreasing, we don't see that as bad news as it brings structural stability. Yet, it will force the group to execute its long-term strategy under the heavy watchful eye of state-directed capitalism.

Expert Opinion:
Nexi, much like Worldline, has suffered from severe decompression in multiples over the last few years, losing significant value from its post-pandemic highs due to structural shifts, merchant fee compression, and concerns around AI and rising fintech competition. The company is still generating strong free cash flow, allowing for g a nice dividend yield. 

Concerns of rising competition (be it from Fintech or Adyen or other legacy payment companies) are here to stay in a fast-evolving sector, but the clear support of the Italian state and the healthy cash flow generation make Nexi a compelling investment at this stage. Simply too cheap to ignore.