Novo Nordisk
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 30/07/25, 09:00 CET.
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Company Update:
Novo Nordisk issued a profit warning, as now the 2025 sales and operating profit are expected to increase by 8-14% (vs. 13-21% guided previously) and 10-16% (vs. 16-24% previously), respectively. Sales and operating profit growth in reported terms (in DKK) are now expected to be 4 and 7 percentage points lower.
Novo blames this profit warning on
1/ persistent use/sale of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs from compounding pharmacies (despite the ban imposed by the US FDA from May 2025 onwards), taking advantage of loopholes in the law,
2/ slower-than-expected obesity market expansion, and
3/ competition for both its weight-loss and diabetes medicines, i.e., Wegovy and Ozempic, respectively.
We will revise down our estimates by 10-15% (we were above consensus).
For all details in the note please contact our sales team.
Expert Opinion:
The warning on sales is bad and wasn't expected, hence the massive drop in share price ($70bn drop in market value). The comments on the "all of a sudden issues" in the obesity market are also worrying. While part of this is linked to kitchen sinking by the new CEO and resetting expectations, our expert expects that the market will be as puzzled as we are and that deserves a discount.
Yet stock is trading (before revisions) at 12.7x for this year. Post revisions, we will trade at c14x for a stock that we still believe will generate at least 10% eps growth going forward. He believes the drop in share price is way excessive and Novo is a stock to buy and hold to wait for the recovery (which could take some time unfortunately). For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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