Oil Sector
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 31/03/26, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
President Trump signaled a possible end to the war in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed. Since the outbreak of hostilities, market attention has focused on Hormuz and on the infrastructure designed to bypass it, and this is becoming increasingly important.
Two pipelines underpinned the "manageable disruption" thesis: Saudi Arabia's Petroline to Yanbu and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline (ADCOP), together representing roughly 7 mb/j of alternative export capacity.
As of yesterday, 1.5 to 1.8 mb/j of that capacity is in question.
Satellite imagery shows fires at two pumping stations along the ADCOP, the only route allowing Abu Dhabi to export crude without transiting Hormuz.
The sequencing is clear: Fujairah terminal, the pipeline's destination and one of the world's largest crude storage hubs, has already been struck seven times. Now the artery feeding it is burning. Iran isn't just closing the Strait. It's destroying the exits.
That leaves Yanbu as the last bypass standing. The Saudi Petroline runs approximately 1,200 km westward from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea, with a capacity of around 5 mb/j. But the Red Sea is not a safe harbour. Houthi interdiction capability in Bab al-Mandeb has already demonstrated its reach, and any degradation of that corridor would complete the encirclement.
The physical reality is a supply emergency.
Brent will remain under upward pressure as long as no simultaneous resolution occurs on both chokepoints. We maintain our positive recommendations on upstream producers, integrated majors and refining plays.
Expert Opinion:
We see no reason why Crude oil should be lower on the news. We expect that the grip of Iran on the Strait of Hormuz will remain strong and short of a change in regime, the likelihood of having oil flow freely again is small. We stick to our positive stance on the integrated (and E&P names).
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
We see no reason why Crude oil should be lower on the news. We expect that the grip of Iran on the Strait of Hormuz will remain strong and short of a change in regime, the likelihood of having oil flow freely again is small. We stick to our positive stance on the integrated (and E&P names).
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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