Saipem

Saipem was awarded a major offshore EPCI contract by Qatar Energy LNG for the COMP5 package of the North Field Production Sustainability project. The total contract value is around $4bn, with Saipem’s share amounting to approximately $3.1bn, strengthening backlog visibility over the medium term. With an estimated backlog of around €25bn, this award represents more than 10% of the current order book, making it a meaningful contribution at the group level. The project is part of Qatar Energy’s strategy to sustain and expand output at the North Field, the world’s largest non-associated gas field. The scope covers engineering, procurement, fabrication and installation of two large offshore compression complexes, with offshore installation expected in 2029-2030. 

On an annual basis, the contract would contribute approximately $50–60m of EBITDA, equivalent to around 4% of Saipem’s current annual EBITDA (~€1.5bn), with a higher contribution expected in peak execution years. This award follows previous NFPS packages secured in 2022 and 2024, further reinforcing Saipem’s strategic positioning in large-scale offshore gas developments and its long-standing partnership with Qatar Energy LNG.

Saipem's momentum is good. Valuation is cheap, whatever metric is considered. Of course, Saipem is also linked to the price of oil and gas, which triggers new investments. From that standpoint, the crackdown by the US on Venezuelan oil is a positive (even though likely to be short-term). Indeed, US forces seized a second vessel off Venezuela’s coast and are pursuing a third, as part of a broader effort to disrupt sanctioned crude exports tied to the Maduro regime. While Venezuela has massive oil reserves (the largest in the world) it only produces 1% of the global demand. Yet this could be enough to change the balance and prolonged disruptions (especially to exports toward key buyers such as China ) could increase price volatility by forcing a reshuffling of supply. 

Obviously a positive for oil producers (Our expert likes Total and Galp following the excessive drop in share price).