TF1 and M6
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 08/01/26, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
This is potentially a heavy blow indeed. The long-term prospects for broadcasting and especially free-to-air broadcasters look gloomy. Despite developments like TF1+, which are good, the trend is clear. Fewer and fewer people watch TV, switching to new players like Netflix or YouTube. While our expert doesn't believe other food retailers are likely to stop their TV investment soon (more of a kneejerk reaction from Lidl), it also shows that the benefits of TV Ads aren't that good. If it were an absolute must-have for food retailers, Lidl would have kept its marketing budget on TV.
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Company Update:
Lidl just announced that it will stop any TV advertising for 2026 after being condemned by the regulator to a fine of €43m for unlawful advertising of temporary product promotions. This is a major blow for both TF1 and M6 as Lidl was the second advertiser on French media with €400m in the first 9 months of 2025. Knowing that 22% of this amount last year was on TV, it could mean a potential loss of revenue of c.€30m for TF1 and c.€15m for M6 based on their audiences, ie c.1.3% and 1.2% of their projected 2025 revenue. We thus expect a negative reaction this morning and will adjust our numbers accordingly. We reiterate our preference for TF1 over M6 for its innovative capabilities and a less painful streaming transition that could mitigate this blow. Nonetheless, this news is symptomatic that the sector regulation is outdated and is a major hindrance for TV broadcasters to face American streaming giants.
Expert Opinion:
This is potentially a heavy blow indeed. The long-term prospects for broadcasting and especially free-to-air broadcasters look gloomy. Despite developments like TF1+, which are good, the trend is clear. Fewer and fewer people watch TV, switching to new players like Netflix or YouTube. While our expert doesn't believe other food retailers are likely to stop their TV investment soon (more of a kneejerk reaction from Lidl), it also shows that the benefits of TV Ads aren't that good. If it were an absolute must-have for food retailers, Lidl would have kept its marketing budget on TV.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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