TotalEnergies

Company Update:
TotalEnergies has confirmed it has shut down its offshore production in Qatar, Iraq and the UAE ; specifically, the North Field assets in Qatar (gas), the Halfaya and Al-Shaheen fields in Iraq (oil), and the Emirates offshore blocks (oil).

That represents 15% of the group's upstream production, around 380,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The financial impact is fairly significant. Even though Gulf barrels are more heavily taxed and therefore less profitable, they still account for 10% of Upstream CFFO: roughly $1.8 billion of annual operating cash flow.

However an $8 to $10 per barrel rise in Brent will be enough to offset the entire loss. And that's roughly where we'll land given the conflict.

On the positive side, UAE onshore production is unaffected (oil, ~210 kbpd TTE share), the Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia is running normally (refining, ~400 kb/d), and Qatar LNG exposure remains marginal (~2 Mt in 2026, mostly marketed by QatarEnergy).

Finally, the group's 2026 growth will come from Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and Malaysia: none of which are affected.

We still expect a negative market reaction on the update.

Expert Opinion:
Total is within our coverage the stock most impacted by production disruption in the Middle East and is therefore the one benefiting the least of the spike in Brent.  Yet these were already known elements and we would expect that this isn't a massive surprise for many. The whole sector is still a buy in our view and over the long run Total has fantastic assets. Short term we favor BP and Shell (and Galp) but over the long run, our money is still on Total. 

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