Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 17/09/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
According to French newspaper Les Echos, Total and RWE were awarded an offshore wind farm project in France with a capacity of 1.5 GWh. According to the article, it is likely RWE will withdraw from the project as offshore wind in France is no longer a priority. Total energies is said to be committed to the project even if RWE withdraws from it. But we estimate that the total investment cost for the project is c $4bn, with 75%/80% initial capital commitment, ie $3.2bn. This compares with Total capex envelope in renewable which only stands at $5bn per year.
So if RWE does indeed walk away and if Total wants to go through with the project, our expert believes the group will have to seek another partner as the capital commitment seems high for Total on its own.
Bear in mind that the IRR on offshore wind is estimated at c 6% while oil and gas IRR stands around 15%. (Which is why many companies are currently reassessing their development in wind farms).
Expert Opinion:
We don't have the financial details of the contract. It will be interesting to see whether Total does maintain its commitment to the project. Our expert still likes Total in the long run as valuation is cheap and he still believes there is no real alternative at this stage to fossil fuel when it comes to producing energy in an affordable and efficient way. Total currently trades on PE of 8.7x for 2025 and 8.2x for 2026 with a dividend yield of 7.5% and 6.7% for those two years. Clear buy in his book (but our analyst is less enthusiastic).
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