TUI
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 25/03/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
Valuation is quite low, especially considering the fact that the issues on the balance sheet are now behind. Furthermore the upgraded guidance for Markets and Airlines, even though marginal is rather a good news and we expect a positive reaction today. However, we would not buy the stock now. We believe the uncertainty regarding the consumer environment, be it in Europe or in the US is too high. TUI is pure discretionary spending and there is a risk on that segment. Too early to buy back in the name in our opinion.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
CMD today: The guidance were globally confirmed with one noticeable exception. The mid-term margin growth for Markets & Airlines is now guided at 3% vs 2-3% previously, noting ahead-of-schedule transformation progress.
FY25 outlook unchanged with revenue to grow by 5-10%, (i.e. €24,325-25,484m) and underlying EBIT to grow by 7-10%, (i.e. €1,387-1,426m), implying a margin of 5.6-5.7%.
Mid-term ambitions unchanged:
* Average growth in the underlying EBIT to reach 7-10%, of which 3% in Markets & Airlines (up from 2-3% previously), vs 1.5% in FY24.
* Net leverage ratio to remain strongly below 1.0x, vs 0.8x in 2024 and 1.6x in 2019.
* Already achieved the target to return to its pre-pandemic credit rating equivalent to BB/Ba.
Expert Opinion:
Valuation is quite low, especially considering the fact that the issues on the balance sheet are now behind. Furthermore the upgraded guidance for Markets and Airlines, even though marginal is rather a good news and we expect a positive reaction today. However, we would not buy the stock now. We believe the uncertainty regarding the consumer environment, be it in Europe or in the US is too high. TUI is pure discretionary spending and there is a risk on that segment. Too early to buy back in the name in our opinion.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Solid start of 2025 with signs of recovery in key markets.