UniCredit
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 12/09/24, 09:00 CEST.
Company Update:
We believe the 9% stake in Commerzbank by UniCredit is the first step towards more move. We understand that the German government wasn’t aware that UniCredit was the one buying the 4.5% stake and the board of Commerzbank is working on defense strategy.
We believe that one move would be a equal merger between Commerzbank and HypoVereinsBank. In our scenario, UniCredit would initially own c59% of the new company but could decide to leave it listed which would (maybe) make it more acceptable for both the German government and the board of Commerzbank.
In any case, we believe the speculation on Commerzbank will not ease and we maintain our buy rating on the name. Despite the 17% rise in share price yesterday, we see a 32% upside on the name.
Expert Opinion:
Consolidation seems now more difficult on local territories. Transborder deals are still very rare and it seems that the UniCredit move is actually a national consolidation in Germany. However, many voices are calling from a true unification of the European market, notably from a regulation standpoint. I still like Société Générale, even on a stand alone basis due to-
1. Its very cheap valuation
2. The expected improvement in French retail with the coming benefits of the Credit Du Nord/ Société Générale merger
3. The strategy of refocusing on key business and selling non core assets.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed daily updates, reach our to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
We believe the 9% stake in Commerzbank by UniCredit is the first step towards more move. We understand that the German government wasn’t aware that UniCredit was the one buying the 4.5% stake and the board of Commerzbank is working on defense strategy.
We believe that one move would be a equal merger between Commerzbank and HypoVereinsBank. In our scenario, UniCredit would initially own c59% of the new company but could decide to leave it listed which would (maybe) make it more acceptable for both the German government and the board of Commerzbank.
In any case, we believe the speculation on Commerzbank will not ease and we maintain our buy rating on the name. Despite the 17% rise in share price yesterday, we see a 32% upside on the name.
Expert Opinion:
Consolidation seems now more difficult on local territories. Transborder deals are still very rare and it seems that the UniCredit move is actually a national consolidation in Germany. However, many voices are calling from a true unification of the European market, notably from a regulation standpoint. I still like Société Générale, even on a stand alone basis due to-
1. Its very cheap valuation
2. The expected improvement in French retail with the coming benefits of the Credit Du Nord/ Société Générale merger
3. The strategy of refocusing on key business and selling non core assets.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed daily updates, reach our to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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