Aerospace Defence
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 21/11/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Defense stocks took a sharp hit yesterday amid growing signs that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is prepared to collaborate on a U.S.–Russia-backed peace framework for Ukraine. A proposed 28-point peace deal would require Ukraine to make significant concessions, including territorial transfers, limits on its military capabilities, and sanction relief for Russia. That said, Europe has pushed back strongly. Kaja Kallas made clear that “for any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board.”In short, while the idea of de-escalation is gaining traction, a deal without Kyiv’s and Europe’s full involvement is unlikely, leaving the market with significant uncertainty around any near-term resolution and thereby continuing defence demand.
Expert Opinion:
It looks like the US is pushing hard for talks and the prospect of peace is closer today. Should this happen (with all caveats mentioned above, notably the reluctance of Europe), the most impacted stock in our universe would be Rheinmetall, which is the key ammunition supplier in our coverage. Yet, it wouldn't change the longer-term picture which is the need for European countries to increase their defence capability. In that scenario, we still see Leonardo (Add) and Thales (add) as well as BAE (Reduce) as attractive long-term plays in the sector. Please note that the prospect also has an impact on Oil prices as the prospect of removed sanctions on Russia is increasing the risk of oversupply.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
Defense stocks took a sharp hit yesterday amid growing signs that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is prepared to collaborate on a U.S.–Russia-backed peace framework for Ukraine. A proposed 28-point peace deal would require Ukraine to make significant concessions, including territorial transfers, limits on its military capabilities, and sanction relief for Russia. That said, Europe has pushed back strongly. Kaja Kallas made clear that “for any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board.”In short, while the idea of de-escalation is gaining traction, a deal without Kyiv’s and Europe’s full involvement is unlikely, leaving the market with significant uncertainty around any near-term resolution and thereby continuing defence demand.
Expert Opinion:
It looks like the US is pushing hard for talks and the prospect of peace is closer today. Should this happen (with all caveats mentioned above, notably the reluctance of Europe), the most impacted stock in our universe would be Rheinmetall, which is the key ammunition supplier in our coverage. Yet, it wouldn't change the longer-term picture which is the need for European countries to increase their defence capability. In that scenario, we still see Leonardo (Add) and Thales (add) as well as BAE (Reduce) as attractive long-term plays in the sector. Please note that the prospect also has an impact on Oil prices as the prospect of removed sanctions on Russia is increasing the risk of oversupply.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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