Airbus

Yesterday, Airbus held its Business Update providing updated medium-term ambitions through 2029.

FY26 guidance reaffirmed: 870 aircraft deliveries, €7.5bn adjusted EBIT and ~€4.5bn FCF before customer financing.

2029 financial targets introduced:

- €12–13bn adjusted EBIT (cons already at EUR13.5bn according to Visible Alpha) 

- ~1x net income cash conversion

- Commercial Aircraft EBIT to almost double

- Defence & Space EBIT of ~€1.3bn

- Helicopters EBIT of >€1bn

Capital allocation: launch of a €5bn share buyback over the next three years.

Operations: management struck a noticeably more constructive tone on engine availability and the supply chain, reinforcing confidence in the H2 production ramp following a slow start to 2026.

Analysis: Overall, we expect a positive market reaction. While the 2029 financial ambitions are broadly in line with expectations, the €5bn share buyback represents the key positive surprise. In addition, the more constructive commentary on engine availability and supply-chain execution should provide reassurance ahead of H1 results and support confidence in a stronger H2.

Expert Opinion:
We still view Airbus as a key buy-and-hold asset. Its long-term prospects (beyond 2029) remain very strong (the duopoly is still alive, with the underlying market set to double in the foreseeable future). PE 26 currently stands at 26x (easy to remember) but is going down very fast and will continue to do so with a doubling of operating profit in 2029 vs 2025. EUR5bn share buy back on top of the expected dividend is also nice, demonstrating the company is very secure when it comes to cash flow generation. 


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