BP
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 14/10/24, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
Despite a massive SBB program ($1.75bn per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q3) shares are still down 12.2% year to date making it the worst performer of the sector. Valuation is slightly cheaper than our favorite stocks in the sector TotalEnergies and Shell but in our view, this is not a reason to go tray to buy the dip on BP. One needs to wait for a clarification of the strategy and until then we stick to our preference for TotalEnergies and Shell (with Galp as a special situation with an option on the Mopane block).
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Company Update:
Q3 Trading Update : upstream production remained broadly flat quarter-on-quarter. With weak refining margins-driven by a global slowdown in fuel demand—and lower oil trading performance expected to reduce profit by $400–$600m compared to Q2. The segment’s EBIT, already in the red at -$100m last quarter, is likely to remain under strain.
The change in management leadership following Bernard Looney’s resignation didn’t translate in any change in strategy and we believe it is unlikely to happen any time soon.
We will have to cut our estimates on the name.
Expert Opinion:
Despite a massive SBB program ($1.75bn per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q3) shares are still down 12.2% year to date making it the worst performer of the sector. Valuation is slightly cheaper than our favorite stocks in the sector TotalEnergies and Shell but in our view, this is not a reason to go tray to buy the dip on BP. One needs to wait for a clarification of the strategy and until then we stick to our preference for TotalEnergies and Shell (with Galp as a special situation with an option on the Mopane block).
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed daily updates, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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Alphavalue Morning Market Tip
Solid start of 2025 with signs of recovery in key markets.