Novo Nordisk
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 10/09/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
As a back-of-the-envelope calculation, assuming a 30% tax rate, DKK8bn savings at perpetuity @10% is worth DKK56bn (NPV at DKK51bn) minus cost of DKK5.6bn is DKK45.4bn, ie DKK13 per share. But beyond that mere mechanical impact (if you believe they will achieve the targets announced) the cost-cutting plan is great news as the acknowledgement by the new management that the company needs streamlining. The company has been growing very fast over the last few years to meet the massive demand for Ozempic and mistakes were probably made (which was probably unavoidable). Now comes the time of rationalisation but this in no way means that the underlying equity story has changed. Demand remains strong and despite the increased competition with Eli Lily, Novo will book massive profitable growth in the obesity and weight loss segments.
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Company Update:
Novo Nordisk will cut 9k jobs (now 5k in Denmark), some 11% of its global workforce, aiming to save some DKK8bn per year by 2026.
The group will book a DKK9bn restructuring cost in Q3 but will get DKK1bn benefit in Q4, meaning the net cost for the year will be around DKK8bn.
Therefore, the group is cutting its operating profit growth guidance from 10-16% to 4%-10%.
On a separate note, the US regulators are now cracking down on misleading advertisements from thepharma industry and will send around 100 cease-and-desist letters. This development was perhaps prompted by Hims & Hers advertisement for weight-loss drugs (copy-cat version of Novo’s Wegovy) via a Super Bowl commercial. Any crackdown on Hims & Hers should be good news for Novo.
Expert Opinion:
As a back-of-the-envelope calculation, assuming a 30% tax rate, DKK8bn savings at perpetuity @10% is worth DKK56bn (NPV at DKK51bn) minus cost of DKK5.6bn is DKK45.4bn, ie DKK13 per share. But beyond that mere mechanical impact (if you believe they will achieve the targets announced) the cost-cutting plan is great news as the acknowledgement by the new management that the company needs streamlining. The company has been growing very fast over the last few years to meet the massive demand for Ozempic and mistakes were probably made (which was probably unavoidable). Now comes the time of rationalisation but this in no way means that the underlying equity story has changed. Demand remains strong and despite the increased competition with Eli Lily, Novo will book massive profitable growth in the obesity and weight loss segments.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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