Novo Nordisk
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 01/09/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
While there are many caveats (STEER findings are based on a retrospective, real-world study, not a randomized controlled trial and the follow-up period of 3-4 months was short), this is great news for Novo. If that finding is confirmed, it may provide the edge needed to regain market shares in the US. The drop in share price was far too excessive and despite the recent bounce, Novo still trades at 14x its 25 earnings, which is quite attractive considering its potential. Still a buy in our expert's book.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
Company Update:
Novo Nordisk said on Sunday its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy cut the risk of heart attack, stroke or death by 57% versus Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound. This result comes from a real-world observational study (STEER) applied to overweight or obese patients with established cardiovascular disease (but no diabetes), based on over 21,000 individuals. Specifically, major adverse cardiac events occurred in 0.1% of Wegovy users versus 0.4% of tirzepatide users, over follow-up periods of approximately 3.8 months (Wegovy) to 4.3 months (tirzepatide).
Among GLP1s and beyond the mere impact of weight loss, semaglutide may have a different effect than tirzepatide on cardiovascular events.
This is potentially a significant outcome. Indeed, this may give an edge to Ozempic vs Mounjaro/ Zebbound. Cardiovascular episodes are the number one cause of death in the US and based on that study, clinicians may preferentially choose Wegovy for patients with high cardiovascular risk, which could help Novo to regain market shares in the US. Novo is also pursuing oral Wegovy and expanding to treat other metabolic conditions like MASH (metabolic-associated steatohepatitis), having already gained FDA approval for that indication.
Expert Opinion:
While there are many caveats (STEER findings are based on a retrospective, real-world study, not a randomized controlled trial and the follow-up period of 3-4 months was short), this is great news for Novo. If that finding is confirmed, it may provide the edge needed to regain market shares in the US. The drop in share price was far too excessive and despite the recent bounce, Novo still trades at 14x its 25 earnings, which is quite attractive considering its potential. Still a buy in our expert's book.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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