Pernod Ricard
Note: This is a daily stock update and the information stands true as of 16/10/25, 09:00 CET.
Company Update:
Expert Opinion:
Momentum remains very weak. This comes as a semi-surprise, as comments by LVMH yesterday indicated an improvement in consumer demand from the US and China. The consensus expected a 7.1% drop in organic sales, and it came at a 7.6% decline, ie, not a massive surprise on the downside. Valuation is now clearly more attractive at PE26 (June) and 27 at 13.8x and 13.0x respectively, while the dividend yield now stands at 5.6%. It may be time to tiptoe in the sector unless you believe that the alcohol consumption will structurally decline going forward due to changes in consumer behavior.
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Company Update:
Pernod Ricard reported Q1 FY25/26 sales of €2,384m, representing an organic decline of 7.6%, below consensus expectations of -7.1%.
Americas was the main drag, down 12%, with the US showing a sharp 16% drop.
Asia & Rest of World declined 7%, impacted by a continued slowdown in China (-27%).
Global Travel Retail fell 15%, though sales are expected to recover in Q2 following the conclusion of the Chinese anti-dumping investigation.
Europe posted a more moderate 4% decline.
Fake guidance maintained: A gradual improvement in organic net sales, weighted toward H2. The medium-term ambition of mid-single-digit organic growth is maintained.
Momentum remains very weak. This comes as a semi-surprise, as comments by LVMH yesterday indicated an improvement in consumer demand from the US and China. The consensus expected a 7.1% drop in organic sales, and it came at a 7.6% decline, ie, not a massive surprise on the downside. Valuation is now clearly more attractive at PE26 (June) and 27 at 13.8x and 13.0x respectively, while the dividend yield now stands at 5.6%. It may be time to tiptoe in the sector unless you believe that the alcohol consumption will structurally decline going forward due to changes in consumer behavior.
For daily updates, subscribe to our newsletter and for detailed information, reach out to us at sales@alphavalue.eu
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