Securitas

Securitas will hold its CMD today and released updated financial targets for 2030: 

EPS growth CAGR of 10% until 2030

Operating margin above 10% in 2030 (vs 8% in 2025 and 2026e)  

Cash flow conversion target of 80-90% of operating income before amortization (vs 70-80% previously)

Debt/EBITDA below 2.5x 

Dividend: payout between 50% and 60% of net profit across the cycle. Once growth priorities are achieved, Securitas commits to return excess capital. 

Expert Opinion:
Securitas is transforming into a partner in intelligence-led security, expanding into advanced data, analytics, and technology (including AI) to enhance their traditional security offering.  These upgrades should be welcomed, even though they are not particularly surprising. Securitas remains an attractive equity story with attractive valuation levels. Indeed, PE26 and 27 stand at 12.9x and 11.5x respectively (before potential upgrade post CMD). 

We expect consensus will upgrade its numbers going forward and our 9% upside may prove too shy. 


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